Handicapping Tips

     Determine if a race is playable or if you should “pass.”

There are certain “signposts” and “signals” that are posted conspicuously in every race that tell us when to play and when to pass.

  Determine if there is enough value in any race to warrant a
wager.

Understand the relationship among morning line odds, projected odds and post time odds and you will understand how to instantly spot a value play, which is the only situation you should risk your money on.

  Determine the running styles of every horse in a given race and
know which have the advantage in any given situation.

You should label each horse with its particular running style to correctly matchup the field.

  Determine what the pace shape is of any race.

You should label the pace shape of each race to project how the race will be run. How many of each running style are there in this matchup?

  Determine what the race shape is of any race.

There are 4 race shapes: fast, lone early, honest, and slow. You should see how the 4 running styles match up against one another in each.

  Determine which running styles will have the advantage in any
matchup.

Examine the running styles, pace shape and race shape of any race and you will see which horses have a pace advantage and which are at a distinct disadvantage.

  Be aware of what the main reason is for favorites losing 67% of
the time.

The main reason favorites lose 2 out of every 3 races is not because of class hikes or inferior speed figures or because they bounce.


More Handicapping Tips

  Determine which horses are the true contenders.

You have to be able to “whittle” down every field to a maximum of 3 or 4 contenders or it’s an immediate no-play situation. A short series of techniques will tell you quickly if you should continue the handicapping process.

  Determine which horses are the pretenders of any matchup.

It’s a pretty easy and quick process to eliminate “dead wood” from any field. You just need to know which key elements to look for, and you will quickly separate the contenders from the pretenders or also-rans.

  Know how to determine actual class for any horse.

There is a simple numeric number that can be quickly calculated for every horse in the field that will give you a complete picture of real class comparison. A simple calculator and the 60-20-10 method will give you a close look at the true class of each horse in the field.

  Know how to maintain a healthy ROI even if at times you
connect on only one of every 4 or 5 races you play.

The only way to maintain a healthy ROI is to know which races to play and which races to pass. A short list of things to look for will tell you when to do either.

  Know when a horse is properly conditioned to run his best race
today.

There are simple tipoffs that reveal if a horse has been properly conditioned to run his best race today.

  Know how to properly use the Beyer speed figures located in
the Daily Racing Form.

Those numbers to the immediate left of each horse’s running lines in the Daily Racing Form are great tools…if you know how to use them. Are they the “be all and end all” to the handicapping process? Of course not, no one factor is, but I’ll tell you this, correct utilization of them can be extremely rewarding. Can you find situations in which underlay Beyer speed figures are at an advantage? Yes with a capital Y.

  Be one of a tiny fraction of players who know how to use the
“invisible” Beyer speed figures.

This is an amazing, needs-to-be-seen technique that is completely unused by 99% of all players that points out a regular stream of winning overlay plays that are visible to only those in the know.


And More Handicapping Tips

  Know what the “bounce” theory is and when it pertains to a
horse in today’s race.

Does the “bounce” theory have any credibility? Yes, it sure does, but you need to know when a horse is most likely to bounce off a top effort and when he is most likely to continue on with an equal or better effort in his next outing. This is an extremely valuable handicapping tool that is completely misunderstood by John Q. Public.When Artax ran his huge lifetime best effort in his prep race for the Breeder’s Cup Championship Sprint, in which he beat a long-standing record for six-furlongs at Belmont Park, 99% of bounce theorists believed he would “bouncethrough the ceiling. He ran an extremely rare Beyer Speed figure of 123 and after having run the same outstanding figure previously in 1999, he did indeed bounce. That’s why so many handicappers were amazed and puzzled that he didn’t bounce in the Breeder’s Cup. As a matter of fact, astoundingly he went forward off that tremendous effort and ran a 124 in his Cup victory!

When I looked at the Daily Racing Form past performance line of Artax’s prep race at Belmont, I could tell immediately that he should not bounce. I could not expect him to run even better, but I could tell by the way he ran this race, which was completely different than the previous time he ran a 123 Beyer speed figure, that he would not react negatively to such a great performance. Artax was pushed to the limit, but did win and become the Sprint Champ at an overlay payoff of $9.40. As a side note and as a testament to the greatness of Artax, I know of no other horse ever that in the same year has run three Beyer speed figures of 123 or better.

  Know the true way to locate “hidden class drops.”

A truly amazing technique reveals “hidden class drops” that are totally unseen by the general public.

  Know and understand the absolutely key internal fractions
of a given race and how to easily figure and apply them.

There are some key internal fractions that you should be looking at for every horse in every race, including the fabulous “Golden Eighth.” They are simple to figure but give you a tremendous advantage over your competition.

  Know and understand Turn Times – how to figure them and
precisely apply them.

Clear up the oft mentioned but also much misunderstood turn time calculation. Apply the one component of turn times that is omitted by most players, including good handicappers, and be able to quickly and simply figure your own accurate turn times.

  Know the most important portions of the racetrack on which
to judge past performances, which are completely overlooked
by most players.

There are a couple of segments of a race that the majority of players don’t even look at, let alone realize the importance of. They are the places in the race where many important moves are made that signal next-out readiness.

Know the correct way to handicap turf races.

Turf racing vs. dirt racing is like baseball vs. football; 2 different games, and you have to know how to play each, the right way, in order to win. Grass racing is an entirely different entity from dirt racing and the focus of your handicapping should be on one particular segment. When you know what to look for and how to match up contenders you will accomplish 2 things; 1.) you will have no hesitation about playing turf races, and 2.) you will cash more tickets.

  Know how to determine the “speed of the speed.”

It can be extremely important to separate the speed of the speed from the other early runners in any field. Mainly because if there is a dominant speed horse from among the group, while he’s continuing on for the win or place spot, as a rule most if not all of the rest will not hit the board.

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